Following the schedule of our Reading Calendar
This chapter, although extended in a biographical narration of an academic discussion, explains a single idea: expertise and expert intuitions are possible but only in environments where there is enough regularity to make predictions possible and the subjects are exposed to those regularities long enough to learn them (conscious or unconsciously). Fire fighters, nurses, chess masters follow into this category. In domains with less validity (stock picking, political analysis, etc…) expertise and predictions are not possible.
I have a much more simple heuristic: real experts do not use the word “expert” when they refer to themselves. They are fire fighters, nurses, plumbers, translators, programmers… The charlatans use the word: finance experts, international politic experts, management expertise. So, when you hear the word “expert”, you must run as fast as possible can.