Following the schedule of our Reading Calendar
The lessons from this chapter:
1. We are lousy Bayesian Infererers. We just forget once and again about prior probabilities. I have to admit that I gave the wrong answer to the question opening the chapter. So, lets admit it, if I make such an error while reading this book, there is not human way to avoid making such errors in normal life.
2. We are much more likely to incorporate prior knowledge into our inferences if it takes the form of causative rules. As we have commented before, we are causality searching machines. And when we cannot find it we create it.
3. System one cannot work with ambiguous traits with assigned probabilities. He needs to create stereotypes with very defined characteristics and is going to base its judgments on that defined traits.
4. The most important conclusion of the chapter is something about what Nassim Taleb has told us a lot of times: the only way of entering our minds is through stories where particular things happen to particular people. Our mind is unaffected by abstractions, conceptualizations, means, medians and briefings. We need to learn the story. And that is the only way to change our minds.
And two comments from my part:
1. This book seems to be giving us ideas of how to manipulate people and how to avoid being manipulated. The problem is that until know I am finding a lot of the first but I don’t see any real proposal that has the appearance of being effective in achieving the latter. The feeling that one gets when reading the book is of helplessness.
2. The book is quite boring. Kahneman uses abstraction to teach us that are stories and not abstraction what get into our minds. Taleb uses stories to tell us that stories is what matter. And if at the end it is going to happen that no knowledge can be trusted, lest have at least a bit of fun.