Following the schedule of our reading calendar.
We enter now the second book of the book:
Modernity and the Denial of Antifragility
where he has promised us to talk about the social and political implications of the concept of antifragility. Of course, he has already talked a lot about it but, you already know by now, observing chapter conceptual boundaries is not one of Taleb’s virtues.
He reviews the fundamental concepts of The Black Swan:
1. The difference between mediocristan and extremistan systems together with the property of the later of being subjected to catastrophic non predictable events.
2. The impossibility of prediction by induction from the past in extremistan environments (with the Bertran Russel chicken converted into a Turkie).
3. The fact that our modern economic and financial world is extremistan-like.
From here he offers an approach to try to create systems less fragile (I will try to avoid the word “antifragile” as much as I can along the whole book, because I am not convinced of it). We need a bottom up diversified organizations of our political and social systems that creates constant noise but prevents catastrophic big fluctuations. And his model is the city state versus nation states and his beloved example is Switzerland with its chaotic political organization.
All that is not that different from what we had in The Black Swan. However, Taleb seems to have approached libertarian political positions. In the former book, every idea seemed invented from scratch by him. Now his ideas and examples seem much more in line with the traditional liberal / libertarian movement for the political points and with the Austrian school of Economics for the economic ones. I cannot say that this disappoints me.
Just a quote:
(talking about Switzerland) this bottom-up form of dictatorship provides protection against the romanticism of utopias
It is difficult to be more conservative than that.